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Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States has contributed $2.6 billion in security aid to Ukrainian forces, the majority of which has come from US military stockpiles. The seventh such drawdown package, worth $800 million, was unveiled last week.
According to the Department of Defense, more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 5,500 Javelin anti-armor systems, 700 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, 7,000 small arms, 50 million rounds of ammunition, 18 155mm Howitzers with 40,000 155mm artillery rounds, 16 Mi-17 helicopters, hundreds of armored Humvees, and 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers have been delivered as of April 14. According to one estimate, the US military has given around one-third of its Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, leaving 20,000 to 25,000 remaining.
As a result, questions about the military readiness of the United States have arisen. While the Pentagon claims that none of the military's stocks are critically low enough to jeopardize readiness, they did organize a conference with officials from eight major defense companies to explore industry recommendations to speed up manufacturing of existing systems. The focus of the meeting was on addressing US needs as well as measures to increase production capacity for weapons and equipment that can be exported quickly, deployed with minimal training, and proven successful on the battlefield.
Regrettably, industry representatives claim that their budgets, allocations, needs, and procurement systems are all locked in peacetime mode. They also expect to confront challenges with starting up production lines, labor, supply chain issues, parts and machine tool obsolescence, time restrictions for certifying new suppliers and technical approaches, as well as time waiting for budgets and contractual issues. Even in good times, the defense industrial base in the United States takes 18 month to 3 years to prepare for conflicts. And, unfortunately, according to the National Defense Industrial Association's "Vital Signs" survey of defense firms, the US defense industrial base and its ability to surge production capacity receives a failing grade.
As a result, unless the President invokes the Defense Production Act to prioritize component deliveries to arms manufacturers, ramping up from the US military's current buy of 1,000 Javelin anti-armor systems per year to maximum capacity of about 6,480 per year would take a year, and thoroughly replenishing US stocks would take 32 months.
Meanwhile, as the arms industry weighs investments in its production lines, the Pentagon has yet to release detailed and long-term spending plans for FY23. The industry is wary of the government’s ability to finalize those plans in a timely way noting the Department of Defense has a history of leaving the industry holding the bag when the money doesn’t show up from Congressional appropriators.
