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The Taliban recently imposed an official ban on poppy farming, as well as the production, distribution, and use of other illicit substances. Many interpret the action as an attempt to improve the Taliban's international image.
The Taliban's latest restriction is likely to have far-reaching political, economic, and social consequences. Concerns have been raised regarding the economic impact on Afghan's economy, as well as on the vast supply chain for illegal drugs. Indeed, Afghanistan's heroin industry is expected to generate $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion in revenue for Afghanistan in 2021, according to the United Nations.
Some farmers are likely to continue to raise the plant. Despite the Taliban's prohibition, opium remains one of the only solid sources of income in a country plagued by wars spanning decades, and accounting for as much as 32% of the country's gross domestic product at one point.
Aside from the potentially disastrous domestic consequences, the collapse of Afghanistan's heroin trade could herald in a new era of drug trafficking in Europe and the United Kingdom, where most Afghan heroin is consumed.
So far, European countries have mostly avoided the destruction caused by the spread of fentanyl and other synthetic narcotics experienced in the United States and no one is quite sure why.
Some argue that the plentiful supply of high-purity heroin from Afghanistan has lessened the need to adulterate it with potent synthetic opioids. Others believe more conservative use of prescription pain medicines in Europe and the United Kingdom limits the spread of opioids. Many fear, however, outlawing heroin manufacture in Afghanistan, for whatever reason, will result in the influx of synthetic opioids that officials in Europe and the United Kingdom have long dreaded.
Alternatively, drug trafficking organizations from other heroin-producing countries, such as Colombia, Mexico, or Myanmar, could step in to fill the hole left by Afghan heroin's decrease.
While either of these scenarios is plausible, fentanyl's particular properties may lead to it becoming the drug of choice. It's easier to create, conceal, and use than other alternatives. To put it another way, fentanyl is perfectly adapted to destabilize and replace the heroin market in Europe and the United Kingdom.
Accordingly, given how dangerous fentanyl can be, experts believe it's critical that officials in Europe and the United Kingdom act quickly to identify the emergence of fentanyl in the drug supply and act quickly to mitigate its effects. Early detection systems such as analyzing municipal wastewater and improving forensic toxicology should be employed according to these experts. Additionally, they recommend education, enforcement, and treatment as part of the campaign to reduce the spread of fentanyl. And, of course, dialogue between European and UK officials and their American colleagues is encouraged, as, unfortunately, the United States has vast experience with synthetic opioids and can offer many painful lessons learned.
