YouTube: https://youtu.be/FSr-TmvpYHk
As a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have both shown an interest in joining NATO. In a few weeks, Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, will decide whether to join.
The decision to join NATO involves risks for both countries, and the two Scandinavian countries joining NATO may create more of a security dilemma than a solution.
When a weaker state attempts to strengthen its power in order to balance a stronger one, as the Scandinavians intend to do by joining NATO, a security dilemma arises. This is viewed as a threat by the stronger state, which responds in kind.
This helps to explain the Kremlin's reaction. Russia has officially said that a nuclear-free status for the Baltic region is no longer possible. Furthermore, Russia has described NATO as an instrument designed to provoke conflict.
As a result, Russia now may pursue two strategic options for balancing power against an expanding NATO. It may strive to strengthen its own power through an arms race, or it may seek to reduce the threat of an enhanced NATO by launching a preemptive strike on NATO with its military.
In fact, Russia's invasion of Ukraine may be viewed as a similar attempt to balance power given Ukraine's interest in NATO membership and a perceived security dilemma. First, Russia was not able to balance power through a conventional arms race. Second, Russia was not able to forge an alternative alliance that could help restore balance. Accordingly, Russia invaded Ukraine. And Russia's Ukraine invasion may be a horrific first step. Given the time and money involved in trying to match NATO’s superiority in non-nuclear forces, and given the perceived extra threat of a significantly enlarged NATO on his doorstep, Putin may consider a pre-emptive nuclear strike his only option.
Putin has made it clear that if faced with a threat he cannot address through other means, he will resort to nuclear weapons. In this regard, Russia's recent development of hypersonic cruise missiles could be a game-changer. Experts believe NATO has yet to build a system capable of reliably detecting hypersonic cruise missile trajectories and speeds. This could lead Putin to assume that a preemptive strike on Western command and control systems is achievable before they can respond. As a result, Russia may believe it has a higher chance of surviving a nuclear war than the west.
As a result, the debate over Finland and Sweden joining NATO may need to go beyond the obvious necessity to respond to a perceived Russian threat and expand to consider the long-term consequences of the security dilemma it may create, including the prospect of nuclear weapons.
