Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Featured Post: US Wheat Woes Add to Global Crisis

YouTube: https://youtu.be/CDA-rpnEGhg

In the United States, there are two wheat crops: spring wheat, which is currently being planted, and winter wheat, which will be harvested soon. Both are in danger.

As of late May 22, farmers in the United States had only seeded 49% of their anticipated spring wheat acres, one of the lowest rates on record.

This is particularly concerning because the US is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, and these difficulties are affecting output at a time when global wheat stocks are at crisis levels.

As a result, Washington has urged American farmers to plant more winter wheat this autumn, and the administration has announced that sowing on some environmentally sensitive terrain will be permitted starting this fall.

Nevertheless, droughts in some places, floods in others, and expensive agriculture inputs likely will combine to limit productivity growth.

North Dakota is the leading producer of spring wheat in the United States. Farmers have been unable to plant due to heavy, rainy weather, and North Dakota is likely to plant wheat on the smallest percentage of its cropland ever. Growers have only planted 27% of their crop so far, the second-slowest rate in four decades.

Kansas is the leading winter wheat producer in the United States. The winter wheat crop in Kansas was devastated by a drought, and the US winter wheat harvest potential has dropped by more than 25%. In mid-May, experts touring wheat fields in Kansas predicted that the harvest would be down by 28% this year.

Colorado, which borders Kansas, is facing a similar fate, with experts estimating that farmers will quit their crops at a rate of more than 30%.

Adding to these weather woes is the long-term declining trend in wheat production as farmers shift to corn and soybean farming, which is more lucrative due to demand from biofuel makers. This trend is expected to continue with the opening of two new soy processing factories in eastern North Dakota.

 

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Sunday, May 29, 2022

Featured Post: Wells Fargo Conducts Fake Interviews to Game Diversity Reports

YouTubehttps://youtu.be/dhJSW85aaqk

A new investigation reports Well Fargo has been conducting fake job interviews to seemingly increase its diversity hiring pool. Specifically, the company would interview diverse candidates even after the job already had been promised to someone else in an attempt to create a paper trail in case they ever were audited.

Seven current and former employees support these claims. One employee noticed Wells Fargo would call in for an interview diverse candidates, typically women or people of color, even though the role already was filled. The employee, who subsequently has been fired, complained to his superiors that the fake interviews were both morally and ethically objectionable.

The employee joined Wells Fargo in 2000 and had responsibility for hiring financial advisers and consultants. He alleges his supervisors advised him to fill the lower paying of the two jobs with Black candidates. He additionally alleges the company typically already had selected alternate candidates for the positions. He eventually refused to conduct interviews with employees he knew Wells Fargo had no intention of hiring

Another Wells Fargo employee corroborates these claims. This employee was a senior manager in Nashville, Tennessee. The employee asserts he was told to reach out to others for leads on filling a sales assistant position and document his efforts to recruit a non-white candidate.  At the same time, the employee states he was informed to whom the position actually would go in advance of any interviews.

Wells Fargo denies these allegations stating there's no sound reason for Wells Fargo to conduct false interviews.

 

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Friday, May 27, 2022

Featured Post: More Russian Leverage - Nuclear Fuel and Technology Supply Chains

YouTube: https://youtu.be/ifValPJ1Mkc

Many countries are reconsidering their reliance on Russian resources, particularly oil and natural gas, as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A new analysis showing Russia's dominance in the nuclear reactor fuel and technology supply chain raises similar worries.

In 2021, of the 439 nuclear reactors in service around the world, 38 were in Russia and 42 were built with Russian technology. Additionally, in 2021, 15 reactors under development used Russian technology.

If a country hasn't built nuclear reactors yet, it can, of course, choose alternate suppliers. If a country already has Russian nuclear reactor models, repair parts and services are likely to be sought from Russia.

In addition, Russia mines around 6% of the raw uranium produced each year. This is an amount that can be replaced if other uranium-mining countries increase their uranium production. Uranium, on the other hand, does not flow directly from a mine to a nuclear reactor. Before it can be utilized as nuclear reactor fuel, it must undergo conversion and enrichment.

Russia is a major player in this arena. In 2018 Russia controlled 46% of the conversion and enrichment capacity, falling slightly to 40% in 2020. As a result, the United States and its allies should concentrate their efforts here, according to the report.

Furthermore, the United States must be prepared for fuel for its next-generation advanced reactors, which require uranium to be enriched to 15% to 19.75%  (current reactors use uranium enriched to between 3% and 5%).

Unfortunately, this high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel is now only available on a commercial scale from Russia and adding adequate new conversion and enrichment capability will take years. Furthermore, the US government must commit to not relying on Russian supplies to persuade private enterprises to invest money and resources in uranium infrastructure. The concern is that in a year or two, trade relations with Russia will recover, and Russian uranium products would be permitted back onto domestic markets, undercutting any private investment made.

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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Featured Post: A Ten-year History of America's Mass Shootings

YouTubehttps://youtu.be/u7yIRHtEcDY

There have been 212 mass shootings so far in the United States this year, according to a tally that defines mass shooting as an event where four or more people are shot or killed, excluding the attacker. Without meaning to minimize the loss and tragedy of others, the list below highlights major mass shootings in the US over the last 10 years.

May 24, 2022: Ulvade, TX - In the bloodiest school shooting in a decade, a young gunman killed 19 children and two adults at a primary school in south Texas.

May 14, 2022: Buffalo, NY – In a racially motivated incident, a white shooter killed ten Black persons at a store. He was arrested and is being held in jail without bail.

April 12, 2022: New York City, NY – A 62-year-old man detonated a smoke bomb and opened fire in a subway, injuring 23 people. The following day, he was arrested.

November 30, 2021: Oxford, MI – After a teenager opened fire at a high school in Oxford, Michigan, four pupils were murdered and seven more were injured.

April 16, 2021: Indianapolis, IN – Before killing himself, a former FedEx employee who had been in mental care shot eight people dead and injured numerous others at a FedEx plant in Indiana.

March 31, 2021: Los Angeles, CA – A shooting at an office building in suburban Los Angeles killed four people, one of whom was a child, before the perpetrator was apprehended.

March 22, 2021: Boulder, CO – Ten people were killed in a mass shooting at a supermarket in Boulder, Colorado, including a police officer.

March 16, 2021: Atlanta, GA – In a series of shootings at day spas in and around Atlanta, eight individuals were killed, including six Asian women. A white male suspect was taken into custody.

February 26, 2020: Milwaukee, WI – Before committing suicide, a shooter opened fire at the Molson Coors Beverage Co brewing complex in Milwaukee, killing five coworkers.

August 4, 2019: Dayton, OH – In downtown Dayton, Ohio, a shooter wearing body armor opened fire, killing nine people, including his sister. The assailant was killed by police.

August 3, 2019: El Paso, TX – In El Paso, Texas, a man fatally shot 22 people at a Walmart shop. The attack was described as retaliation for the Hispanic invasion of Texas in a statement thought to have been written by the suspect. The gunman was apprehended by authorities.

May 31, 2019: Virginia Beach, VA – A public utility employee opened fire on coworkers at a municipal office in Virginia, killing 12 people before being fatally shot by officials.

February 15, 2019: Aurora, IL – After being dismissed, a man opened fire at an Illinois workplace, murdering five workers before being shot by police.

November 7, 2018: Thousand Oaks, CA – In Thousand Oaks, California, a suburb of Los Angeles, a former Marine combat veteran slaughtered 12 people in a bar. He then committed suicide.

October 27, 2018: Pittsburgh, PA – A gunman opened fire on attendees gathered for a Shabbat service at the Tree of Life synagogue outside Pittsburgh, killing 11 people.

May 18, 2018: Santa Fe, TX – Before surrendering to police, a 17-year-old student opened fire at his high school outside of Houston, Texas, killing nine classmates and a teacher.

February 14, 2018: Parkland, FL – A former student at Parkland, Florida's Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School murdered 17 students and educators.

November 5, 2017: Sutherland Springs, TX – Before shooting himself, a man who was discharged from the US Air Force for abusing his wife and child shot 26 people at a rural Texas church where his in-laws worshipped.

October 1, 2017: Las Vegas, NV – From a 32nd-floor hotel suite, a shooter opened fire on a country music festival, murdering 58 people before taking his own life.

June 12, 2016: Orlando, FL – Before being shot dead by police, a gunman fatally murdered 49 people at Pulse, a gay nightclub.

December 2, 2015: San Bernardino, CA – Before dying in a shoot-out with authorities, a husband and wife killed 14 people at a workplace holiday party in San Bernardino, California.

October 1, 2015: Roseburg, OR – Before being slain by authorities, a shooter walked onto an Oregon college campus and opened fire, murdering nine people.

June 17, 2015: Charleston, SC – At a church in Charleston, South Carolina, a white supremacist murdered nine Black churchgoers. He was given the death penalty.

September 16, 2013: Washington, DC – At the Washington Navy Yard, a former Navy reservist working as a government contractor killed 12 people. Police fatally shot him.

December 14, 2012: Newtown, CT – In a rampage at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, a highly armed gunman killed 26 people, including 20 children aged five to ten.

July 20, 2012: Aurora, CO – A masked gunman opened fire at a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado, killing 12 people. He was given several life sentences.

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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Featured Post: Europe Fears Monkeypox Becomes Endemic

YouTube: https://youtu.be/vGRslZPQeig

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned of the risk of monkeypox becoming endemic in Europe, that is, regularly found among European people. This would occur if attempts to control the spread of the virus fail and the virus subsequently infects animal species susceptible to the virus. The virus then would become entrenched within animal species that then serve as a virus host and source of new human infections.

The health agency noted they know little regarding the viability of European mammals as a repository for the virus but indicated that squirrels and other rodents likely would be suitable hosts. The agency also noted transmission from people to pets may occur. These spillovers could lead to the virus becoming entrenched in European wildlife that then becomes an ongoing source of disease transmission to humans.

The agency expressed their concern in a recently released statement, indicating that if human-to-animal transmission occurs, and the virus subsequently spreads in an animal population, then there is a risk that the disease could become endemic. Accordingly, the agency now stresses the need for close collaboration between both veterinary and human health agencies to both monitor and manage the spread of monkeypox to exposed pets thereby, and hopefully, preventing transmission of the disease to wildlife.

Currently, monkeypox is endemic in only a dozen countries, mainly in Central and West Africa. Fortunately, infections only occur occasionally. Additionally, prior to the recent spread of cases, only a few infections have occurred outside the endemic countries including in Israel, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Additionally, a detailed investigation of the 2003 United States' outbreak found no evidence of transmission from humans to animals. Instead, analysis showed imported pets from Ghana as the original source of the virus. These animals then infected pet store prairie dogs, which subsequently infected 47 Americans in six different states.

Nevertheless, and unfortunately, the current monkeypox case count continues to rapidly rise, especially as countries increase their surveillance efforts. To date, there are approximately 200 cases of monkeypox that are either suspected or confirmed across eleven European countries and, additionally, in Australia, Canada, Israel, and the United States.

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Monday, May 23, 2022

Featured Post: US Considers Deploying Special Forces in Ukraine

YouTube: https://youtu.be/pbrd4VKZOv0

The Pentagon is considering sending special forces to Kyiv to protect the newly reopened US embassy. According to US sources, the deployment is ultimately based on the risk of raising tensions in the region by sending American troops into the conflict zone versus the benefit extra security would provide.

A strategy has yet to be formally given to President Joe Biden, as well as senior defense officials such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley. According to US sources, the troops would solely defend and protect the US embassy, which is within Russian missile range.

The State Department is now in Kyiv with its own guards from the Diplomatic Security Service. The US embassy in Kyiv reopened last week after being relocated for more than three months owing to Russian invasion fears. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted at that time that the embassy had undertaken "increased" security protocols and measures.

Now that the US has resumed activities at the Ukrainian embassy, the Pentagon press secretary said the Pentagon is in close contact with State Department colleagues regarding future security requirements. No decisions have been made, and no specific ideas have been discussed at senior levels of the Pentagon concerning returning US military personnel to Ukraine for that or any other reason, according to the Pentagon.

Nevertheless, the Pentagon and the State Department are said to be in the early stages of planning to send dozens of additional troops to the embassy. Restoring a Marine security guard detachment to the diplomatic post is one idea.

While President Joe Biden has stated that no US troops will be sent to Ukraine, the White House is discussing whether the deployment of US forces would discourage an attack on embassy personnel or provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officials are also debating whether there are sufficient resources to evacuate personnel if conflict breaks out in Kyiv, which is still subjected to Russian bombings on a regular basis.

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Sunday, May 22, 2022

Featured Post: The War We Ignore: Ethiopia's Civil War

YouTubehttps://youtu.be/V3vZl5V0JH0

A conflict has raged for over a year now, with thousands dead, over two million displaced and forced to flee, and parts of the country in which it is fought plunged into famine. Yet the world seems to pay little attention to the civil war in Ethiopia, Africa's second most populated country and long-considered vital to regional security. The following highlights the conflict and its causes.

Who's fighting? Forces fighting include those under Ethiopia's Prime Minister and the Tigray People's Liberation Front ('TPLF'). Forces under the Prime Minister's control include the Ethiopian military, forces from neighboring countries, and ethnic militias.

Who are the Tigrayans and the TPLF? Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia. Tigrayans comprise 6% of Ethiopia's total population with two larger ethnic groups comprising 60% of Ethiopian population. Ethiopia's central government marginalized Tigrayans throughout the 1800's. The TPLF formed in the 1970's to fight what was then a Marxist military dictatorship in Ethiopia. Despite its small numbers, the TPLF prevailed as a dominating force in an alliance of rebels that brought down the Marxist regime in 1991.

How long did the Tigrayan's prevail? Tigrayans were a leading force in Ethiopia's coalition government from approximately 1991 to 2017 and ruled through a TPLF led coalition. The country become more stable and enjoyed increasing international alliances. However, the government was less than fully peaceful on a domestic level. Political opponents were repressed, dissidents were tortured in detention centers, and free speech was limited. Anti-government protests in 2016 gave way to new leadership, with Ethiopia's current prime minister assuming power in 2018. A crackdown on Tigrayan leadership then followed. The Tigrayan leadership subsequently retreated to Tigray.

Why did Ethiopia’s prime minister begin an offensive in Tigray? Ethiopia has a system of governance that includes both a central, coalition government and a federal system of various self-ruling regions controlled by different ethnic groups. Along with the crackdown on Tigrayan leadership, Ethiopia's prime minister in 2019 dissolved the existing coalition government. The TPLF refused to join the new coalition government citing it as illegitimate. Tensions exploded in September 2020 when, in defiance of the prime minister who had postponed Ethiopian elections citing COVID concerns, Tigrayans held regional elections. War erupted when in November 2020, TPLF militia executed a pre-emptive strike against a central government military base in Tigray, alleging an upcoming federal action. The war quickly escalated with various gains and retreats by both sides.

How has the war affected Ethiopians and their neighbors? The civil war has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis. The United Nations estimates over 9.4 million people in northern Ethiopia are in dire need of help. The World Health Organization estimates approximately 6 million Tigrayans have been denied access to cash, fuel, and communications. However, government blockades of Tigray prevent aid from reaching these people with relief efforts at only 10% of what is required. The Ethiopian central government denies its efforts are blocking aid and blames the TPLF instead.

The civil war also has affected Ethiopia's international relations. Observers note evidence of massacres and widespread sexual violence. The United States classifies as ethnic cleansing the actions of some actors. US President Biden has ended Ethiopian trade privileges and suggests possible sanctions for Ethiopian leaders. Neighboring countries fear the demise of Ethiopia as a source of regional stability.

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Saturday, May 21, 2022

Featured Post: Defense Contractor Gifts Politicians $50k As They Debate Aide to Ukraine

YouTube: https://youtu.be/3903T25oj60

According to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission, one of the country's largest defense contractors, Raytheon Technologies, distributed more than $51,000 in contributions to members of Congress and partisan political committees in April as lawmakers debated sending a new round of weapons and other military aid to Ukraine.

Raytheon Technologies manufactures Stinger missiles, which are being used by Ukraine to shoot down Russian planes, and also co-manufactures Javelin anti-tank missile systems with Lockheed Martin.

Raytheon Technologies gifted the money to legislators throughout April as Congress debated more than ten Ukraine-related proposals. Specifically, the contractor contributed to the campaigns of more than 30 members of Congress, as well as several political action organizations and national party committees. Eight of the thirty members of Congress receiving the gifts presently serve on the House Armed Services Committee.

Additionally, in April the arms manufacturer also gave $15,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and $2,500 to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The spending of Raytheon Technologies by its Political Action Committee ('PAC') fluctuates from month to month. During April in election years, it has spent anywhere from nothing at all to the low six figures.

In addition to contributions through its PAC, Raytheon Technologies spends millions of dollars each year directly lobbying the federal government, including Congress, on policy and regulatory issues. According to federal data provided by a nonpartisan research firm, Raytheon spent roughly $3.5 million on federal lobbying activities in the first three months of this year alone.

At the same time, 20 members of Congress individually have invested in Raytheon Technologies or Lockheed Martin through purchases of stock, the price of which has nearly doubled in value since the March 2020 stock market meltdown.

 

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Friday, May 20, 2022

Featured Post: 100 million People in US West and Midwest Face Summer Blackouts

YouTubehttps://youtu.be/-A0yR-XuE_w

This summer, around 100 million people in the United States' West and Midwest will be without power as hot weather, overworked power plants, and the inconstancy of renewable energy sources combine to produce a perfect storm of difficulties. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) issued this warning in a recent report, releasing a map showing which states are most vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. The states with the highest risk levels are located in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator's power grid region (MISO).

Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin, in particular, are in jeopardy. Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and a tiny portion of East Texas are also at risk. The high-risk rating means the existing energy grid is potentially insufficient to satisfy peak load during both regular and exceptional conditions. The report is a grim and cautionary tale, according to industry experts.

NERC discovered that once energy demand returns to pre-pandemic levels, power supplies will be stretched thin. Furthermore, traditional power plants are shutting down quicker than renewable energy sources are coming online, resulting in a power gap that raises hazards at times of need, such as during hot summers. Since last summer, generation capacity in the Midwest has been reduced by 2.3% due to the closure of ageing power facilities.

Furthermore, the remaining coal and natural gas plants consequently are working harder than before, increasing the danger of failure. Tornado damage to a crucial transmission line in the region in December has complicated issues even more. Repairs are expected to be finished in June, and the damage is particularly concerning because the area relies on power from neighboring regions to meet demand and keep the energy system working.

According to NERC, every state further west of that area faces an increased risk. This indicates that the power grid should have enough resources to meet peak demand under normal conditions but may be insufficient under exceptional situations. California grid operators have already warned citizens that blackouts may occur during the next three summers as the state transitions to renewable energy.

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Thursday, May 19, 2022

Featured Post: US Raises Odds of Russian Default by Blocking Debt Payments

YouTube: https://youtu.be/-Ky6z1XKdAU

After a deadline expires next week, the Biden administration is likely to entirely limit Russia's ability to pay US bondholders, perhaps pushing Moscow closer to default.

When a temporary exemption expires on May 25, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control is likely to let it lapse. The waiver, which was granted immediately after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in February, has allowed Moscow to make previously required bond payments avoiding defaulting on its government debt.

However, after nearly three months of war in Ukraine, the termination of the carve-out could be the final straw in Russia's debt drama. It has so far made all its payments to creditors, despite the labyrinth of financial sanctions that have closed off some options. This includes an 11th-hour escape earlier this month when Moscow raided its domestic dollar reserves to pay bondholders.

Some argue allowing Russia to pay its debt will further drain its coffers and draw down resources that might otherwise be spent on weapons and military activities in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the US government has decided not to prolong the waiver to maintain financial pressure on Moscow. In the end, any financial impact from payments to creditors is overwhelmed by the money Russia earns every week from oil, gas, and other commodity exports.

Moscow's next debt payments on foreign bonds due in 2026 and 2036 are scheduled for May 27. The former is denominated in US dollars but allows for payments in euros, Swiss francs, or pounds, as well as interest payments in US dollars to accounts in Switzerland, the United Kingdom, or the European Union. A condition in the euro-denominated 2036 bond allows for payment in rubles.

After the May 27 payment, the next sovereign transfer requiring payment in dollars is due on June 24, when the interest on a 2028 sovereign note is due. By the end of June, Russia will owe creditors more than $490 million in foreign-currency bond payments.

 

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Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Featured Post: Why does Turkey oppose Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership?

YouTube: https://youtu.be/7dAi2v_AdS8

The potential NATO membership of Finland and Sweden may have stalled as Turkish officials recently indicated opposition to their membership. The Nordic countries’ applications must be approved unanimously by all NATO members, and Turkey’s President recently said delegates from Finland and Sweden should not even bother traveling to Turkey for diplomatic talks.

Turkey, along with Greece, became NATO members in 1952, approximately 3 years after NATO was established. The following highlights some reasons contributing to Turkey’s objections to expanding NATO membership to include the Nordic countries.

1. Alleged Support of Terrorist Organizations by Finland and Sweden. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (‘PKK’) bases itself in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq. The party formed because of concerns over the treatment of Kurds in Turkey. The organization is both political, militant, and armed. The organization has fought in the conflict between Turkey and various groups demanding Kurdish autonomy, advocating for separation from Turkey and establishing an independent Kurdish state. Various countries designate the PKK a terrorist organization, though some experts claim the organization no longer engages in terrorist activities. Turkey’s President Erdogan claims Finland and Sweden offer support for this organization, including failing to extradite requested individuals Turkey claims to have links to the PKK and terrorist activities.

2. Sweden’s Arms Embargo. Turkey’s President targets Sweden for its arms embargo. Sales to Turkey by Sweden ceased in 2019 because of Sweden’s concerns over Turkey’s military activities in Syria.

3. Leverage over the US. The US and Turkey had a major falling out in 2017 after Turkey purchased Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, alleging US inaction on a similar request. As a result, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey and excluded it from the F-35 fighter jet program. This position displeases Turkey and Turkey could use Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications as leverage in its disagreement with the US.

Despite the above, Turkey traditionally supports NATO expansion and experts believe Turkey ultimately will support the membership of the two Nordic countries with conditions supporting its national interests.

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Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Featured Post: U.S. Implements Less Restrictive Cuba Policy

YouTube: https://youtu.be/FJN6NJIHNFM

The United States recently announced a series of changes to its policy toward Cuba, including relaxing limits on family remittances and travel to the island, as well as dramatically expediting the processing of Cuban visas in the United States. The adjustments are substantial, but the announcement falls short of resuming former President Barack Obama's historic approach to Cuban ties. The improvements, according to the US State Department, are intended to support Cuban people and assist them in pursuing a life free of government persecution.

The State Department announced that the United States would lift the $1,000 per quarter cap on family remittances and allow non-related members to make donations. To avoid monies going directly to the Cuban government, the US will employ electronic payment processors for remittances. A plan to reestablish the Cuban Family Reunification Parole Program, which provides a legal method for Cuban families to rejoin in the United States, as well as enhancing the capacity for consular services with the goal of issuing 20,000 immigrant visas per year, are among the other reforms.

The Biden administration would also enable scheduled and charter flights to utilize airports other than Havana, allowing for more approved travel to Cuba. Additionally, some types of group educational travel, as well as travel connected to professional meetings and research, will be reinstated by Washington. Individual 'people-to-people' travel, on the other hand, will still not be permitted. Finally, the US will strengthen support for independent Cuban entrepreneurs by, among other things, facilitating internet access and expanding access to microfinance and training.

The decision by the United States, according to Cuba's Foreign Minister, is a small step in the right path. He emphasized that these steps do nothing to change the existing embargo or on Cuba's, or the alleged fraudulent inclusion of Cuba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism. During the 2020 race, Biden promised to re-engage with Cuba. However, following Havana’s crackdown on widespread protests on the island last July, the US retaliated by imposing penalties on Cuban authorities. Cuban authorities blamed the demonstrations on US interference.

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Monday, May 16, 2022

Featured Post: McDonald's To Sell All Assets in Russia

YouTube: https://youtu.be/EB2uzt0Iv1g

When McDonald's opened its first store in Moscow 30 years ago, it became a symbol of glasnost in action. Now, McDonald's has chosen to quit Russia entirely, after temporarily closing over 800 restaurants in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.

The humanitarian catastrophe created by the war in Ukraine, as well as the resulting unpredictable operating environment, are cited as reasons by the burger business.

The Russian restaurants will be "de-Arched" once the sale is completed, which means they will no longer be able to use the McDonald's name, emblem, or menu.

McDonald's three-decade connection with Russia comes to an end with these sales. On January 31, 1990, McDonald's launched its first outlet in Moscow. More than 30,000 people were served, and the crowds forced the Pushkin Square site to stay open hours later than intended.

It wasn't only about Big Macs and fries when it arrived in Moscow. It was the most visible manifestation of Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev's efforts to open his collapsing country to the outside world.

According to some, McDonald's leaving signals a new isolationism in Russia, which will have to turn inward for investment and consumer brand growth.

McDonald's will suffer a $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion write-off because of its pullout from Russia. Additionally, given the sale's circumstances, potential Russian buyers' financial difficulties, and the fact that McDonald's will not license its brand name or identity, the sale price is unlikely to be anywhere near the business's pre-invasion book value.

At the end of last year, McDonald's had 847 locations in Russia. They amounted for 9% of the company's sales in 2021, together with another 108 in Ukraine.

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Sunday, May 15, 2022

Featured Post: Experts Suggest Desperate Russian Oligarchs Could Use Hawala Payment Systems to Avoid Sanctions

YouTube: https://youtu.be/geoBbx1VdSk

Experts indicate desperate Russian oligarchs could come to use payment systems known as Hawala to move funds and evade sanctions as a last resort. Hawala is a legal, trust-based payment system that allows an individual to transfer funds without moving any money. Nevertheless, because these systems confer anonymity, they sometimes are used for illegal and illicit purposes.

Here’s how the system works. Hawala dealers keep informal records and journals that record credit and debit transactions which they subsequently settle. Now, suppose Alexandra (‘A’) wishes to transfer money to Bartolomeo (‘B’) in another city or country. ‘A’ approaches a local hawala dealer and gives the dealer money. The dealer records a credit in their journal. B contacts a hawala dealer in his city. The dealer transfers the funds to B and records a debit in their books. The two dealers subsequently settle their ‘deal’ in any mutually agreeable way. Most, importantly, the transaction provides both A and B with anonymity.

The system often is used for legitimate purposes, for example, migrant workers transferring money home. Experts indicate it is relatively easier to find Hawalas in countries that have relatively higher migrant worker populations than it is to find such in other countries.

However, the system sometimes is used for illegal and illicit purposes given the anonymity it provides. For example, in 2013 an International Financial Task Force found informal payment systems pose severe risks because they exist outside the conventional banking system and lack oversight. Additionally, the US Treasury Department in 2020 targeted individuals that used Hawala to eliminate ISIS revenue sources.

Experts suggest payment systems such as Hawala may be used by Russian oligarchs with sanctioned bank accounts. They note, however, they only might use such a system as a last resort and out of desperation because rather than one large transaction, hundreds of thousands of smaller transactions would be required.

Experts also are careful to point out that the presence of a hawala dealer does not indicate the presence of any illicit or illegal behavior. In many ways, using Hawala simply is a least cost way of moving funds. Why, for example, would someone pay a Western Union dealer $8 for a transaction when using a hawala dealer would cost a fraction of that?

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Saturday, May 14, 2022

US Hypersonic Missile Defense Research Enters Second Phase

YouTube: https://youtu.be/_dKfitikKM8

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (‘DARPA’) recently announced it seeks innovative proposals to help advance its hypersonic missile countermeasures program.

The proposals would seek to advance DARPA’s efforts to protect against the use of hypersonic missiles by countries such as Russia and North Korea that have developed and tested such missiles.

Presently, two types of hypersonic missiles and technologies exist. One type is a cruise missile like existing cruise missiles except for the ability to travel at hypersonic speed (five times the speed of sound). The other type is a ‘boost-guide’ missile. Both weapons are considered too fast to detect and have great destructive capabilities. Both weapons also are subject to significant changes in airflow that occur at hypersonic speeds (‘hypersonic cross flows’).

A boost-guide missile contains both the defensive weapon and a booster rocket that propels the weapon to hypersonic speed and then detaches. The weapon then glides to its destination and can use lift, or the upward acting force on an airfoil, to aide guidance.

DARPA’s current efforts focus on defending against boost-guide missile attacks and countering the weapon during its glide phase (hence, ‘Glide Breaker Program’). Under Phase 1 of the program, two prototype defensive missiles - or kill vehicles - were designed that use a divert attitude control system (‘DACS’). A DACS is a propulsion system that allows intercepting targets with great accuracy and reliability. According to DARPA, testing in Phase 1 included component tests and static hot-fire demonstrations of the DACS prototypes.

DARPA indicates Phase 1 represents a significant and crucial step. However, Phase 1 did not explore effects that occur in the endoatmosphere, or lower earth atmosphere. These effects include controlling the kill vehicle in the presence of jet interaction effects at conditions relevant to the operation of Glide Breakers. Jet interaction effects are effects between DACS jets and hypersonic cross flows. Accordingly, DARPA now seeks Phase 2 proposals that would include conducting wind tunnel and flight testing. If Phase 2 results are successful, they will inform further research, design and model development of a hypersonic weapon interceptor, and help the US bridge existing technological gaps.

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Friday, May 13, 2022

Featured Post: America Faces Another Looming Shortage: Diesel Fuel

YouTube: https://youtu.be/LEkSf-K4V6A

As fuel prices soar, the US stockpile of diesel fuel, which is critical for the transportation industry and the economy as a whole, fell to a nearly two-decade low.

The nationwide inventory of distillate fuel oil, which includes both diesel and fuel oil, has dropped to around 104 million barrels, the lowest level since May 2005. East Coast diesel fuel inventories fell to 21.3 million barrels, or nearly two weeks' worth of supply, the lowest level since records began in 1990.

Diesel, dubbed the lifeblood of the world economy, is essential for the construction, mining, and agriculture industries. In 2020, the transportation sector alone used 122 million gallons of diesel per day.

And, unfortunately, industry insiders expect that rationing will take place this summer, particularly on the east coast. This inventory decrease is mostly due to diminished capabilities to convert oil into diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel and falling production levels.

Seven refineries have closed in the last three years, which processed a total of around 806,000 barrels of oil per day, leaving the US with 124 operational refineries, down more than 10% since 2016. Between 2020 and 2021, total operating refinery capacity in the United States fell 4.5% to 17.7 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2013.

At the same time, bans on Russian fuels in the U.S. and Europe put export pressure on the American energy industry. Many countries are refusing to take Russian fuels, resulting in a global need for additional diesel. And because the U.S. is a major exporter of refined products, diesel exports are up.

As a result of the lower capacity and higher exports, only one thing can happen: US diesel inventories deplete, and consumer prices rise. In fact, UPS and Union Pacific, the two major American transportation and freight corporations, have increased their respective fuel surcharges to account for market volatility. Union Pacific, which transports freight by rail, increased its surcharge by 39% this month.

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Thursday, May 12, 2022

Featured Post: Protectionism Hits Food Supply as Inflation and War Toll Hit

YouTube: https://youtu.be/QmORi0e15qk

World governments are beginning to take actions to protect domestic food supplies by limiting exports due to rising inflation and disrupted supply chains resulting in part from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Food shortages and soaring prices often lead to discontent prompting citizen protests and threatening general stability. This, for example, now occurs in Indonesia as the price of food products, especially palm oil, surges. Governments in response then seek to protect domestic food supplies by restricting exports.

For example, after the 2007-2008 financial crisis, major grain exporters, including Ukraine, protected prices by limiting grain exports attempting to insure ample supply. Similarly, India, Vietnam and other major rice producers also limited exports to help protect domestic supply and control inflation.

Experts now fear global and systemic food supply protectionism which especially would harm countries that depend on foreign food supply. Recent actions include the following.

1. Argentina. Argentina supplies 6% of world beef exports. Its rate of inflation rose to 50.9% in 2021. Argentina limited beef exports spring 2021. It’s eased some restrictions since then, but still bans seven cuts of beef from export until 2023.

2. Indonesia. Indonesia supplies the world with the greatest level of edible-oil exports. The war in Ukraine resulted in globally rising prices for vegetable oils boosting Indonesian exports. A domestic shortage then arose with oil prices within Indonesia increasing 40% on an annual basis. Indonesia subsequently implemented a ban on all palm oil exports this spring.

3. Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s wheat exports comprise 4% of the worldwide total with neighboring countries especially dependent. Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Russia ceased wheat exports to the country and domestic wheat prices have increased 30%. Accordingly, Kazakhstan now restricts exports of wheat and wheat flower until early summer attempting to balance the need for export revenue with internal food security.

4. Russia. Russia’s wheat exports comprise 20% of the worldwide total. In response to food price inflation within the country, Russia restricted exports and imposed additional taxes on them. After its invasion of Ukraine, Russia imposed new export restrictions on wheat, ceased sugar exports, and imposed limits on the export of sunflower oil.

5. Ukraine. Ukraine’s wheat exports comprise 9% of the worldwide total. Since its invasion by Russia, the country ceased all exports of wheat, oats, and food staples to protect its domestic supply. Ukraine also is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil and continues to export that oil despite supply chain disruptions due to Russia’s invasion.

 

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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Featured Post: US Arms the World - Now, Turkey

YouTube: https://youtu.be/d21IZk3LrsI

Last month, President Joe Biden's administration requested Congress accept a new weapons contract with Turkey.

Turkey's existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets would receive missiles, radar, and electronics as part of the deal.

Turkey is also trying to strike a considerably larger, separate agreement with the US for 40 new F-16 fighter jets, valued around $6 billion, in addition to the currently proposed the missile and components sale.

The Biden administration reportedly stated that an F-16 sale with NATO member Turkey serves the bloc's interests. However, numerous US politicians who have raised concerns about Turkey's human rights record are likely to oppose the proposed agreements.

Nonetheless, progress on the agreements is noteworthy, given the fact that the US and Turkey had a major falling out in 2017 after Turkey purchased Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. As a result, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey and excluded it from the F-35 fighter jet program.

The F-16 parts transaction comes as Turkey tries to repair its image in Washington, by leveraging its self-declared role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

Since Russia's invasion began, top officials from Ukraine and Russia have met in Turkey for peace talks multiple times. However, Ukraine and Russia have been unable to reach an agreement on cease-fire terms.

Turkey also supplied Ukraine with weaponized drones after Russia invaded, which have since been utilized against Russian troops, which also helps increase its standing with the US.

Accordingly, given Turkey’s role in the Ukraine crisis, the US and Turkey have revived what some refer to as their dormant ‘strategic dialogue.’

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Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Feature Post: Sri Lanka - The First to Fall in A Global Debt Crisis?

YouTube: https://youtu.be/rPnr_YtLx14

Sri Lanka, a south Asian country, has reserves now only totaling $50 million and faces bankruptcy and sovereign default. Unfortunately, industry experts fear this is the beginning of a global debt crisis ushered in by the pandemic, rampant food and fuel price inflation, and global increases in interest rates.

To help Sri Lanka, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation met with country officials to discuss a relief package that would include financial support and be predicated upon a hard-hitting set of economic reforms.

Unfortunately, many low- and middle-income countries potentially face the same fate. Recently, the World Bank president shared deep concerns for developing countries shocked by the increasing cost of servicing debt, and nearly unparalleled increases in the price of food, fertilizer, and energy, in part brought upon by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Experts fear the plight of Sri Lanka ominously signals what is to come for others.

The World Bank estimates 60% of the lowest-income countries now experience financial distress. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not helped. Investors fleeing to safety use the US dollar as a safe haven for capital. The US dollar appreciates, and, at the same time, emerging market currencies depreciate. Compounding the problem is restrictive US monetary policy increasing interest rates, and, subsequently, the cost of debt.

The United Nations recently attempted to estimate the magnitude of the potential crisis. Researchers found 107 countries at risk due to at least one of the three following macroeconomic shocks: more restrictive financial conditions, the cost of feeding the nation, and energy price inflation. Sixty-nine countries were exposed to the ill-effects of all three of these. They include 19 countries in Latin America, 25 countries in Asia and the Pacific, and 25 countries in Africa.

Rescue talks have begun with some countries on the list. For example, rescue talks between Egypt and Tunisia – both highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine wheat imports – and the IMF have begun. Similar talks begin with Pakistan, which recently has had to cut power due to the rising cost of energy imports. Additional countries on the watch list include Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Ethiopia, El Salvador, and Peru. And, recently, the IMF negotiated a $45 billion debt deal with Argentina.

While emerging market crises are not a new phenomenon, the extent of the potential emerging crisis worries the UN. Previously, crises largely were confined to one or two countries at a time. Now, the UN fears a global, systemic crisis which the world may not be prepared to face.

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