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A conflict has raged for over a year now, with thousands dead, over two million displaced and forced to flee, and parts of the country in which it is fought plunged into famine. Yet the world seems to pay little attention to the civil war in Ethiopia, Africa's second most populated country and long-considered vital to regional security. The following highlights the conflict and its causes.
Who's fighting? Forces fighting include those under Ethiopia's Prime Minister and the Tigray People's Liberation Front ('TPLF'). Forces under the Prime Minister's control include the Ethiopian military, forces from neighboring countries, and ethnic militias.
Who are the Tigrayans and the TPLF? Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia. Tigrayans comprise 6% of Ethiopia's total population with two larger ethnic groups comprising 60% of Ethiopian population. Ethiopia's central government marginalized Tigrayans throughout the 1800's. The TPLF formed in the 1970's to fight what was then a Marxist military dictatorship in Ethiopia. Despite its small numbers, the TPLF prevailed as a dominating force in an alliance of rebels that brought down the Marxist regime in 1991.
How long did the Tigrayan's prevail? Tigrayans were a leading force in Ethiopia's coalition government from approximately 1991 to 2017 and ruled through a TPLF led coalition. The country become more stable and enjoyed increasing international alliances. However, the government was less than fully peaceful on a domestic level. Political opponents were repressed, dissidents were tortured in detention centers, and free speech was limited. Anti-government protests in 2016 gave way to new leadership, with Ethiopia's current prime minister assuming power in 2018. A crackdown on Tigrayan leadership then followed. The Tigrayan leadership subsequently retreated to Tigray.
Why did Ethiopia’s prime minister begin an offensive in Tigray? Ethiopia has a system of governance that includes both a central, coalition government and a federal system of various self-ruling regions controlled by different ethnic groups. Along with the crackdown on Tigrayan leadership, Ethiopia's prime minister in 2019 dissolved the existing coalition government. The TPLF refused to join the new coalition government citing it as illegitimate. Tensions exploded in September 2020 when, in defiance of the prime minister who had postponed Ethiopian elections citing COVID concerns, Tigrayans held regional elections. War erupted when in November 2020, TPLF militia executed a pre-emptive strike against a central government military base in Tigray, alleging an upcoming federal action. The war quickly escalated with various gains and retreats by both sides.
How has the war affected Ethiopians and their neighbors? The civil war has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis. The United Nations estimates over 9.4 million people in northern Ethiopia are in dire need of help. The World Health Organization estimates approximately 6 million Tigrayans have been denied access to cash, fuel, and communications. However, government blockades of Tigray prevent aid from reaching these people with relief efforts at only 10% of what is required. The Ethiopian central government denies its efforts are blocking aid and blames the TPLF instead.
The civil war also has affected Ethiopia's international relations. Observers note evidence of massacres and widespread sexual violence. The United States classifies as ethnic cleansing the actions of some actors. US President Biden has ended Ethiopian trade privileges and suggests possible sanctions for Ethiopian leaders. Neighboring countries fear the demise of Ethiopia as a source of regional stability.
